In management circles the idea that problems can be messy (not structured, poorly defined) has been around for some time. I was reading the news this morning and came across a good example of a messy problem. This is the Pakistan crisis. A messy problem is said to have no clear solution that will work and any idea that is used might make the situation better or much worse. In this article the writer points out how the Pakistan crisis is good for business. Two different viewpoints are offered here and we can express them meaningfully as a narrative:
“The Pakistan crisis threatens economic stability”
and
“Businesses are worried about their future because they attach it to Pervez Musharraf staying in power”
From a business point of view a political crisis is an economic crisis because later in the article the report notes the economy fell as a result of the news that the General may not be in control. This is perception is it not? The perception or idea that he is not control is causing economic problems. Think about it… that’s almost worth remembering and writing down!
So we see that what is happening in the political economy could make an impact on the business economy of Pakistan. Now to the solutions:
1. General Musharraf leaves
If he leaves the country may fall into economic turmoil destroying it’s livelihood. There is a perceptual link between stability and Musharraf that needs to be handeld carefully here.
2. General Musharraf stays
If he stays political unrest may come anyway and then economic turmoil is coming anyway (apparently).
3. General Musharraf resigns his military post but stays on as Prime Minister
The market will see this as a show of weakness and in favour of political stability we have economic instability. This in turn would lead to more political instability in the long term and would keep the country in turmoil over a longer period of time.
4. General Musharraf keeps his military position but resigns leadership of the country
This option would see a new election. Possibly Imran Kahn or Benezir Bhutto could take power. This would mean a conversation would need to be struck between Kahn or Bhutto about how the military role would play out in the new government. I would think this is impossible given that both of the aforementioned people are currently on the run.
5. General Musharraf is ‘removed’ and a democratic election held… again
Say for a moment that Musharraf goes into exile and a new election is held. This would mean either Kahn or Bhutto would get in. Which would mean in the short term (according to the article) that economic unrest would follow. Now, for a country that already has a history of economic problems, this would be a huge blow. Economic turmoil always seems to follow political unrest.
6. Any of the above solutions may lead to unrest which in turn may lead to drug growth industries
Consider this article on Lebanon and the growing drug trade there. When unrest occurs, the restrains are lifted off and crime begins to rise. Unrest means chaos and this in turn means legal, political, economical systems begin to fall apart. Sure, it’s the illusion of control but it’s an illusion that’s real enough alright.
These are just a few options that on the surface present new ideas which in turn present new problems. In order to effectively overcome such problems in life you need to dissolve the problem. How can this crisis be dissolved? A higher order solution that removes the problems above is required. Yet, none immediately spring to mind. Everything that I think of only makes new problems. I could go on and list solutions here but what is really required is a change of perspective. A fresh set of ideas. Yet in a country that is in this much turmoil it’s unlikely that it will ever occur. Do you have any ideas?
Technorati Tags: viewpoints, business, Imran Kahn, Benezir Bhutto
