Archive for making decisions

A Boiling Frothing Volcano on the surface

November 21, 2011 / Luke / No comments

Have you ever felt like the people you worked with carried around hostility that was a place beyond shame? Here’s my theory: people are a boiling frothing volcano underneath but it would be better to be a boiling frothing volcano on the surface.

I have appreciated working with people who told me straight up that I was being an ass when I deserved it. I suspect that the majority of the time most people hold their feelings down underneath and hold it in. While there is an element of risk that you will be considered uncivil, strange, emo crazy or just plain weird, I think it’s best to let people have it or at the very least let it out if you need to.

Now should we just go around blasting folks who perhaps have wormed their annoying way into our feeble minds? No. Just yelling is being a complete moron. But, when someone has crossed the line, fuck them, let them know exactly what you think. There is time and place for anger, so long as nobody gets hurt or stabbed, but you can’t let people abuse you time and time again without giving back just a little bit to let them know that you are not going to take it.

Bottom line: don’t let people manipulate you and get away with it. Let them know, in your own boiling volcano way, that you aren’t their bitch. Do it. Right now.

Category: making decisions, personal development / Tags: Easter bunny, problems, random

People don’t solve problems: They create them

September 1, 2011 / Luke / No comments

Well after a year of incredible dissonance I have returned, like I promised in April. Yes, I am that busy. What I am saying is probably bullshit.

Here goes:

People don’t solve problems they create them

Radical idea. Not really. When a problem forms people don’t actually ‘solve’ it. They invent another problem in it’s place to solve it. See, it’s all about learning to live with what we can and ignoring what we can’t.
Welcome to the hall of awesomeness.

Category: creativity, ideas, life problems, making decisions /

Unstructure: What’s missing from most textbooks about management problems…

April 11, 2011 / Luke / No comments

This came through my twitter feed this morning. The schema is a helpful one for examining the world of problems and how we solve them. Sure, it’s a little managementy but it makes some excellent points. I like the use of ‘class 4′ to talk about how we handle management problems, that’s clever. What’s wrong is the assumption that an ill-defined problem is as tangible as another kind of problem. What do I mean?

In life problems occur because we find them. The less well-defined they are, the harder they are to articulate so they more difficult it is to contextually organise our response. A problem that’s well defined has no need of any kind of problem finding. It’s simple. The lightbulb is broken and needs to be changed. A class 4 problem is one that lacks shape, has no structure and is open to many different possible interpretations. The question I am currently exploring in my research is twofold:

1. Does that mean that problems are only ‘interpretations’ when they are complex?

2. If 1. can be explained as having some significance, demonstrably, does that hold then that different interpretations of a problem provide different representations.

3. If these representations are different… could it be that complex problems are malleable? They have a lack of definitiveness? For example, if I deliberately change the way I interpret a problem, do I so by changing the solution first? If I navigate a new pathway to a solution FIRST, when I enrich the manifestation of issues I currently perceive. Even further, if I change my perceptions by thinking about solutions will I by some force, accidental or serendipitous, reveal a new layer of the complexity I am entangled in. That’s a big question with lots of little questions nested in it. Yet, this is knowledge in the raw form.

These are the things that I think about when I come to class 4 problems. We note and see the manifestation of them but lack the appropriate tools to interpret them cleverly enough to say we have any knowledge of them. Perhaps these schema needs ‘Class 5′ to represent problems that are manifesting but have no clear explanation or yet lack a clear framework. So class 5 could be: Creative Solutions. Why? Well if there isn’t a problem but a manifestation of one then a solution is required from a different starting point

A solution is better than a problem in so many ways. It automatically suggests a problem because it’s a solution. In fact, by agreeing to finish a problem (hat tip to Professor Colin Eden’s work) and instead looking at a solution, key ideas of what the problem is could actually emerge. I have seen two cases in recent memory when external crisis events created a solution to a problem that didn’t exist. Once the solution (twitter) presented itself, the problem (communication during emergencies) presented itself and had to be managed. You can’t manage unstructuredness. As a matter of fact if you try to manage the unstructured it will produce variability which itself can’t be managed only adapted to. Enough truisms!

Get to the bloody point

So what’s missing from most management textbooks? A chapter on creativity and management. Structured problems versus unstructured problems and wicked versus tame problems. Managers are not ready for variability and unstructure. Unstructure is the stuff life is made of. Unstructure does not lend itself to concepts of yes and of no. We need management textbooks with ‘unstructure’ in their chapter lists.

The unstructure manifesto

Here’s what we need to do next. Remove the word problem from our vocabularies when we are talking about complexity. You don’t have a problem you have a manifestation of unstructure. The next few steps are critical. But, I don’t know what they are yet. Sponsor my research someone please.

Begging aside… we need to move on from the language of stale problems to focus more on solutions and problem finding. When we hit ill-defined problems we don’t YET have a problem. What we have is a set of undesirable circumstances that have no clear pathway. Think about it. If you have a problem you can define it. If you can’t then as Jonathon Rosenhead says, ‘What’s the problem?’

I am sure I will die frustrated, I was born that way. Yet before I take my last breath I would like to add something to the set of ideas surrounding complex problems. I am committed, in for the long haul, down to the last nail in my coffin, ready to use more commas when appropriate metaphors burst through the sun of my dark days (oops there I go again). So this is me, reframing, framing and entangling the mess of structure with my clouded view of the world. Peace and I will see you at the next post if not in the reality we call life at some point in the near or distant future.

Adios until next time.

Category: creativity, life problems, making decisions /

Making a comeback

March 1, 2011 / Luke / 4 comments

I have not been posting on this blog for some time. I have been debating if I should continue or fill in it like the recently dug holes in my backyard. I thought I would make one last comeback. The reason?

Somebody I know died recently you can read about it here. Although I never met him face to face his posting of comments on this blog made me realise I had something to offer. We shared an interest in Systems Thinking, Ackoff and design and we had many interesting conversations over a period of years on this blog. When I was reflecting on this today I realised that I do have something to offer. This well respected man thought so… even though he passed some time ago.

So I am making a comeback because I believe I have something to offer. I am not entirely certain what that is, but I plan to figure it out.

Welcome back … me!

Category: making decisions, rants /

And around and around we go: How the RBA and the government are refusing to create new solutions for housing affordability

March 31, 2010 / Luke / No comments

When I read articles like this one I am left scratching my head at the ability of people in power to tackle serious problems. Here’s a quote from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) leader man:

“I think it is a mistake to assume that a, you know, riskless easy, guaranteed way to Prosperity is just to be leveraged up into property,” he told the Seven Network. “You know, it isn’t going to be that easy.”

He added that he worries about whether future generations will be able to achieve home ownership.

“I’ve got kids that within not too many more years are going to want somewhere of their own to live and you wonder, you know, how is that going to be afforded because prices are getting quite high.”

Prices are continuing to rise on the back of demand from a growing population outstripping housing supply.

Is this guy on crack? He’s the leader of the reserve bank and he wonders if his children will be able to afford a house? So the leaders of this nation are quite happy to let the rich get richer and increase housing in-affordability in Australia?

The place where I grew up is the third most expensive place to live in the world and it’s not that flash. For me to buy a house in my suburb means that I need 6.5 going 7 times my current income, almost as bad as places like London or Sydney. So what’s the answer from the man in charge. Allow me to paraphrase for you:

“Oh who knows. I mean my kids can’t afford it but instead of actually managing the issue you know what I am going to do? I am going to treat this as if it has nothing to do with me. It’s the market! Oh by the way, if you are looking to get into the market, you can’t because we made it too expensive for the average young Australian wage earner. Sorry about that. So you young people, just sit around collecting degrees and um er… yeah as you were.”

This is not solving the problem, it’s absolving it. Sitting there and wondering as it passes you buy. No offense man, but seriously if you don’t know what to do, what the hell am I supposed to tell my kids? Good luck kids, get a massive home loan and live in the middle of Uranus.

A lesson in Problem Absolving – Problem Solving is not doing nothing!

The late Russell Ackoff called problem absolution (doing nothing) the option most people take. Nothing is being done to fix this issues so it cycles around the system creating no improvement. When a situation is improved, we notice. We say, ‘holy crap, I can afford a house.’ When it gets worse we say, ‘OMG, the problem isn’t getting any better.’ Simple? Doing nothing is, ‘Oh that’s a problem, er… come back and see me in a year and you will be ok.’

I am at a complete loss to explain a lack of governmental response to the price of houses. Even with a grant, the boost and any other kind of incentive, there is no way I can ever hope to live anywhere near I work and raise my family. It just won’t happen. It’s not just me either. Data from the latest ABS survey indicates (it does go here to check it out) that housing debt carried by Australian families is approaching the 40% mark. Putting aside my hobby horse for a moment, consider the ramifications of that. What happens if that becomes too much in the future? What happens to our economy? Forget about home ownership: what about long term security?

Possible Solutions

I am not an economist, I am barely an academic so here goes. A list of things we could do right now:

Take away the financial imperative: Create a situation where home ownership is regulated by the government. A years wage (on average) for a house. Ok, so like I said, I am not an economist. Economists: why won’t this work?
Remodel work so it can be done from anywhere and support the mobile workforce: Create hubs and campuses for city dwellers in places like Uranus, I mean Pluto, I mean the country. Change the reason for living in a city to one of lifestyle and promote that. Sure, that will drive prices higher and create weird developer towns like North Lakes. It will give losers like me an entry point.
Stop blaming the market and think about price ceilings: There is a natural level of supply for demand but here’s the kicker, Price. Supply and Demand is regulated by the price people are willing and able to pay. These stupid arguments about not enough land, blah blah blah. What about price? The argument goes: price drives up demand because of the lack of supply for a scarce resource. I.e. From the above quoted article: “Prices are continuing to rise on the back of demand from a growing population outstripping housing supply.” If this were true why is there so much vacant land in the outer regions of Australia? A better way of saying this would be: At the current price, which is rising due to the perceived lack of supply and a growing base of people wanting to buy in city areas, housing is become more expensive. Therefore, demand for these city properties is surging and the price ceiling (the price people are willing and able to pay), has yet to be reached. Oh but is there a price ceiling? I thought house prices only ever went up… right? WRONG! Conventional economics says that price regulates supply and demand, yet I can’t find a single article that clearly explains this, why? Well, I have no idea about economics that’s why!
Change our desires: This is a tough one. We want a house because we desire. Give me some drugs so I don’t want me own place. Now I know why a lot of people smoke weed (I don’t).
Make bigger caravan parks: Okay so now I am getting silly. At least I have attempted to apply some ideas to the problem instead of turning on the money hose or sitting back, scratching my arse saying,’Oh yeah that is a problem eh!’.

As I write this I am pondering my future and looking with dismay as I save money, labour under yet another dragon of a landlord and work towards my first home purchase. The question, that will no doubt go unanswered is this: What are we going to do about it? The answer I expect is nothing because all of the rhetoric I see coming out of the media is complete bullshit. You know, stuff like: Save a deposit (can’t save that much – I have two kids), don’t want a massive house for your first home (I am looking for a small 3 Bedroom place for me and me kids bro), don’t complain, Entitlement mentality (I am not entitled but this is a desire you are profiting from mr. developer, take it away and I write about something else) and all the other shit the media says people in my generation are guilty of. I say, cram it with walnuts jack! How’s this: If I save for ten years I will have saved one-quarter of what I need in today’s prices. What will the prices be in ten years? A million dollars for a complete dog box with no windows in the middle of the ocean? Jesus wept!

I will leave you with this link to remind you of what happens when we don’t take a proactive approach towards our problems. I would also recommend that all Australians read the Subprime Solution by Robert Shiller. Sure, that may not happen here but it may help us structure the problem in a way that leads to… OMG… a solution!

Category: making decisions, rants / Tags: life problems, policy

You don’t need more information to make better decisions… you need better ideas

March 10, 2010 / Luke / No comments

Often we say when we are making decisions that we need ‘more’ information. As Clay Shirky said in something I watched once: it’s not about more information, it’s about better filtering. I think it’s about better perspectives, ideas and concepts. Yes that probably is more information but it’s filtered, tailored and well suited to your problem. Sometimes more information leads to confusion and this isn’t helpful.

What then?

More perspectives? How about better ideas? Why keep digging the metaphorical hole in the same place… try something else. Get somebody from outside the problem to come in and have a look. Quite often they will frame it in way you don’t expect. Sometimes we are coming from the completely wrong angle… this isn’t at all helpful either.

In the long run I suppose it would be easier to say that having more information would justify the amount of weight we put on the top of a organisation. Ultimately though, most of the time, better ideas will do. Wherever you can find them.

Category: life problems, making decisions, personal development, strategy / Tags: decision making

Can’t Thinking

March 6, 2010 / Luke / 2 comments

Whenever we are faced with a new problem a reaction can be, ‘can’t thinking’. What?

Can’t thinking is when we are faced with the opportunity to change or do something and we say ‘can’t’. The Late Russell Ackoff highlighted this is something of his I read saying that those unchallenged ideas, the one’s that can’t are often not impossible but are considered to be impossible. They are possible but our mindset tells us it ‘can’t’ be done. It’s more likely that we won’t try because of what we think or what we expect. The reality could be completely different.

Newsflash: You won’t know until you try. So instead of saying ‘can’t’ say ‘won’t’ or ‘yes’ and see what happens. If you really can’t… then don’t.

Category: making decisions, personal development /

Creating your very own idea fence

February 17, 2010 / Luke / 4 comments

I was reading this Tumblr post someone sent me recently and there is an interesting reference to ‘fencing’ at the end of it. The idea that a debate or a metaphor can provide a fence around our ways of thinking is something I had written about ages ago. In fact large portions of my PhD work had been involved around the ideas of conceptual framing, the idea that we create reference points to refer to things we experience. I think the ‘idea fence’ concept is much more interesting and I want to write about it. So I did!

Idea fences mean we create a way of seeing things that inhibits us from seeing another perspective. Someone I know would say about a problem,’Well it’s either this or that.’ My response was, ‘why can’t it be something else?’. The idea fences we build put the issues we want to discuss in a neat little basket. We fence them off and say, ‘this is my position and you can only enter my idea house if you are willing to open the fence of my idea gate’. Metaphors ahoy.

I am very good at making idea fences. I often resist changing my ideas because I like them and have grown accustomed to having them in my mind’s garden. Yet, I know I have to do it and I hate it. I think I know something then I find an article or somebody says, ‘have you thought about this?’ Then I hop back on the merry go round again and wheeeeeee more ideas. Ideas also mean power in my world, ‘Oh you are the guy who wrote that paper or you are an Information Systems person aren’t you?’ Then I am fenced in by others. This kind of fencing reinforces the fence around me, which in essence has no place in any real terms outside of my own thoughts; and creates a comfortable seat for me to sit in and contemplate. I am fenced and fencing.

In closing this ramble tamble, let me assure that ideas have a persistent quality. The ingredient of persistence is ‘belief’. That’s what makes them real. We believe they are and so they are and we act on them and it is so. Yet, this perspective is yet another example of a fence I have built around myself and ask me in five years, if I am still alive what I think and the chances are I will have changed my mind!

Category: life problems, making decisions / Tags: framing, life problems

The practical problem of pragmatism in problems

December 2, 2009 / Luke / No comments

Here’s a short thought:

Problems can only be practically solved because of the things we take to practically restrict their solving them. People often blame politics, the environment, marketing, accounting but the biggest issue is what’s feasible or practical to do, given the known constraints. There is a big difference between assumption and actual barrier, yet the actual barriers can be nothing else but thought in the beginning even though it may actually be a real issue that would hinder the problem solving effort. Thinking, as someone said (sorry), doesn’t make it so. The truth may be what happens after we do something, not sure about that; yet there is a level of pragmatism that always drives decision making in business. We can’t do this because of that and we can’t do that because of this. We need to think through these barriers carefully to see if they are real or a matter of our discourse.

One example happened to me years ago when I tried my hand at business. We kept making decisions because ‘we had to’ and over a period of time the direction I blissfully steered the business to failed. Each decision was thought out, reasoned over, implemented with an eye to improvement. Yet as complexity unfolded, new ideas emerged which reset my decision parameters and modified my heuristics, I realised I was playing a fools game. There was no ‘right’ answer, only what was feasible and known to me at the time and with the resources that I had to use. Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber talked about this years ago, yet in all the work I have done, I have seen little progress in this regard. Complexity is a bitch. Scholars like the late Herbert Simon called it decision making under ambiguity, what decisions are made that don’t contain that? Tell me if you know.

The hidden tiger of decision making and complex problem solving is complexity. It laughs at us when we confront it with our ideas, and changes shape the minute we make a choice. What’s known becomes unknown and what seemed ‘right’ becomes not right after the action has been taken. Is the truth something that happens to an idea as William James said? Maybe. Perhaps the truth is not just what happens to the idea but the reasons why it didn’t work in the first place. It is elusive, nevertheless.

Category: life problems, making decisions, strategy /

Dude where’s my vision: Life is ordinary most of the time

April 5, 2009 / Luke / 8 comments

courtesy http://missdebbie.net/

A while back I started reading self-help books. Now, I need as much help as the next guy HOWEVER… I am starting to wonder why this phenomena has become so successful. Yeah I know (potential flamers) that thousands of people realised this long before I did. Anyway, as a preclusion to the following let me say that I think that you can get a lot of value from reading self-help books. But, one thing has bothered me… so much so that I am about to say it in CAPS:

I DON’T HAVE A VISION!!!

Phew. That’s better. Nine out of every ten self-helpers will promote the idea of ‘manifesting’ or ‘having a vision’. What if there’s nothing there? I stopped (as in put the book back on the shelf and closed it NEVER to open again) reading a book that began with … all you need is a vision. I suspect that I have dreams, passions and desires. I sure as hell do (read this for more information). Nevertheless I have been thinking about this for a while… I have no great desire to do anything much. Sure, if I could land an agent and sell my book to a willing publisher that would be good. Getting promoted recently was also pretty sweet and having children is lots of fun. Yet, inside the great vast of my spirit is the essence of nothing.

I am not alone. I know of heaps of people that are clueless about the reason they exist. From the time I was sixteen until now I have had desires, only to find out after a period of time that I no longer wanted to do that. Perhaps I am a transcient? Anyway enough glamourous navel gazing let’s think outside the box.

Visions for sale

Perhaps the core part of the problem lies in the belief that our lives are said to have a grand ‘awesome’ plan to them. What if we decided to anti-vision? OR Anti-plan? Let’s imagine that there is already a plan and the plan is to find out how NOT to plan? I feel at peace the most when I am relaxing and not worrying too much about what tomorrow will bring. Maybe anti-planning is the answer? Planning to not have a plan… living by … emergence? As things cross our paths we can deal with them and begin to build a better existence for ourselves. Why do we need a vision? Yes, I know, I have said having a vision is important… but hey MAYBE I AM WRONG! I think what we find in the majority of self-help literatures is the manifestation of false hope syndrome. We believe in hope and hope lies to us.

We believe in what they say so badly we think we need a grand narrative and meaning to our lives. Go to a cemetary one day for fun. Look at the tombstones. These are ordinary people that died, perhaps they had a dream, perhaps they didn’t. What’s important now is that they are food for worms. They are no more. However, this is not a depressing thing. It means simply that life can be ordinary.

Life is ordinary… most of time

I can count the amount of times I have had ‘defining moments on one hand. Marriage, when my kids were born, getting my first real job etc. Yet, none of these things teaches me about me. It teaches me, that life is like a punctuated equilibrium with long delays inbetween the spikes. Why do we strive to work SO hard to have all this stuff that destroys us in the end. Why? Is being ordinary so damned terrible that we have to avoid it. We can’t all be Richard Branson or GOD FORBID Bill Gates. No, you can’t all be rich millionaries. SORRY. Through hard work, divine favour (perhaps), money and good connections you can be something you think you should be… although I am wondering about the hard work part. Everything I have I worked for, yet in that, the best things I have at the moment were given to me. Hmm… DOWN WITH WORK!

I guess the point of this post is to highlight the beauty of the ordinary. There is real worth in being nobody in particular. Ambition is a double edged sword that on one hand makes you want something but on the other takes you to extraordinary lengths to achieve it. Why do that? Be normal, be beautiful!

Why should we sell our souls for a vision?

Category: life problems, making decisions, personal development /

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