On Hits and Misses 3: The Cutthroat Island Problem

Previously in this series I have talked about engagement and other important things to do with hits and misses.  What I want to finish this on is the problem of timing in hits and misses or what I call the Cutthroat Island problem.  So what is this problem?

The idea basically is that to have a ‘hit’ you must understand timing.  Books like the Tipping Point go a long way to explaining the ‘how’ but leave out a very important ‘why’.  The best example I have found of this kind of resonance is Cutthroat Island.  It actually bankrupted an organisation yet it was about pirates, adventure and has since proven to be a winning formula.   What went wrong?  Timing for one and before you start and say what most people say when a box office hit FAILS, no the movie wasn’t all that bad either.  A lot of people didn’t go to see it, which is why it’s a timing problem.

When timing fails so does everything else.  You can be first to market, as I was, with ideas that are now being taken up and sure it makes you pull your hair out and still fail miserably.  Why?  People aren’t ready they haven’t developed the need for it and the cycle of innovation hasn’t reached it peak.  I call to memory Kindle versus the Rocket E-Book reader and others.  You can argue that it’s the technology or the framework, which it may be, but it my mind it’s timing.

The best example I have found of this is e-learning.  Years ago (1996) we were told that the ‘internet’ was going to replace formal education structures because this new technology would revolutionise education.  Thirteen years later and a recent announcement by the incumbent Vice Chancellor of University of New England states that ‘blended learning’ (e-learning pretty much) is the way of the future!  It was the way of the future in 1996!  Why is there a massive uptake of it now?  People are ready for it.  People weren’t ready for Geena Davis back then but they were very ready for Johnny Depp.

In finishing up the hits and misses series I want to say that it’s horribly complex.  A hit is often the result of pipe size and audience engagement and resonance.  It is also a matter of the right time.  How can we know if people are ready for our products?  Research?  It’s very hard to say.  It could be like Rittell and Webber argue that we will not know what works until we try or what William James said, ‘the truth is what happens to an idea’.  The truth is unpredictable, complex, ever changing and multifarious.  Yet if we study the patterns of engagement and the time in which popularity occurs we can begin to understand what a hit is and a what a miss is.  And yes we should seek to understand these things through a systemic strategic lens!

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