The end of the year is now on us. Personally I am calling next year the year of transitions. Why? This is the year of moving from one station to the next. I firmly believe and am convinced that 2008 will be a year of transitions. I am going out on a limb here and am making some fairly silly if not altogether bold predictions. After spending time thinking, praying and generally walking around in a circle I have to come up with what I think will be the major events of 2008:
A continual shift from the right to the left in global politics
In political circles I think the continued abandonment of the governments in the western world that supported the IRAQ war will continue. It has happened here in Australia and in the UK and I think it will continue with the eventual removal of the Bush administration for the people on the other side of the fence.
The continued disintegration of global media markets
I haven’t written on this yet but I am going to shortly. Quite frankly I think the whole ‘web 2.0′ thing was only the beginning of a shift in media that make take several years to culminate. We are seeing the tip of the iceberg at the moment with the rapid growth of media sites like youtube. Digg is already coming under heavy criticism from major bloggers which I think is a sign of a new phase of social media marketing. I believe in 2008 we will see record venture capital spending of emergent user generated ‘creative’ content. Real media has almost nothing to worry about yet but given the amount of money changing hands for youtube, digg and the like I wouldn’t be surprised if we begin to see a shift in the next little while towards more user-generated decentralised content.
The death of social networking sites
I know what the hell is my problem? But what would a list of predictions be without some controversy. I think social networking sites are on the way out. Sure, they won’t go bankrupt anytime soon but it’s my opinion that soon a lot of them will shut their doors as a few emerge to contend for ‘top dog’ status. Given the CTR’s (click through rates) are so poor on these sites I am convinced that this will be the death nail for smaller less popular sites.
More downturns in the global housing market
In basic economics they teach that demand and supply are related. When demand outstrips supply you have a problem. A lack. Simple hey? Not so for people in the ‘make money fast in property’ bandwagon. We have a new problem in housing circles, prices are higher than they have ever been (I am speaking from Australia… sorry international readers… though I may be right yet!) yet demand is still outstripping supply and we are seeing a continual rise in the price of housing. This means, you will need to be able to service a loan of 8 times the combined family income by the end of 2008 to buy a house. Interest rates will go up again and again as a measure to stop this growth but I am predicting a worldwide shortage will lead to downturns. I can’t say what will happen because of this but my guess is record mortgage defaulting, increasing homelessness and more misery for fringe dwellers. In turn we can expect housing to slip out of the reach of average income earners soon.
Okay so that’s the bad news! What are some positives that I think will happen in 2008.
A rise in creativity
As I have mentioned before on this site… I think there is a genuine creative lag in the world today. Creative problem solving is at all time low and in general there is a lack of creative solutions to old problems. This will change in 2008. I believe there will be a rise in creativity seeing some new interesting things coming our way. New solutions to climate change will emerge as well as new ideas for education, health care and life problems. And yes, I intend to be involved!
New breakthroughs in knowledge and the blogging medium
2008 will be a year remembered as a breakthrough year for new knowledge. We will see some old problems challenged to their core and some new and interesting knowledge emerge. Major advances I think will occur in electronics, fashion industries and of course blogging. I don’t see blogging dying off at some might. I think blogging will be something different in 2008. My gut is telling me that the majority of sites that make money at the moment are based on: a) personal development or b) how to make money online. I think we will see new innovations in the blogging medium next year that will enable bloggers to diversify income streams and offer product based solutions (i.e teaching sells or the problogger course) and a variety of clever ideas. So new knowledge and blogging… I am really not sure why I lumped those two in the same heading!
Deeper level of social consciousness and a continued shift away from materialism
This I think comes in the wake of the overt focus of materialism in society. When you have things like The Secret becoming so popular I think you often notice an adverse effect for people who don’t think so materialistically. I think we will see a continual growth towards markets that cater for non-materialistic concerns. There will be a shift away from the mindset of greed (as I have noticed more and more) towards a growth of social consciousness and less materialism. Don’t be surprised to see more clever and creative aid projects either. I think there will be more grassroots political movements returning next year as this begins to happen. There is an emerging wave creativity getting ready to sweep the planet.
The Olympics will be on
Yes, this is a bold prediction but it will actually happen!
Ok so that’s it from me. I will check back in a year and let you know if I was on track or not. Happy New Year!
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December 27th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
[...] ongoing writers strike has got people looking into the web to make new media ventures. Actually as I have said in my post today on my website I think that we will not see any new or innovative ideas coming to [...]
December 28th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Wow, you’re a little utopia nutters aren’t you? Hey, it’s good to be optimistic, but I think you’ve gone a little pie in the sky, I mean, myspace die! You’re way misjudging the amount of technical idiocy in the human gene pool. They get on myspace because they have no clue how to make a real site.
Possibly, if the Facebook open gambit comes to fruition, we could see some possibilities for true social networking innovation. People want to have social networks, the demand is there. But I think Facebook is headed in the right direction giving people more tools to use and opening the game up for individual development.
Thinking that the world is suddenly going to go completely socialist is a bit odd also,
December 28th, 2007 at 2:56 pm
Steve,
Thanks for your comments. I would like to point out that I didn’t say myspace or facebook would die. I am pointing out that I think some rationalisation will occur. There will we some major players emerge (facebook vs. myspace etc) that will contend for top earnings status. Perhaps this isn’t clear. I did not say that it would die. I have reread my article and I can’t see where I said that. Granted the heading ‘the death of social networking sites’ is misleading but if you read the bit underneath that you will see that I am talking about smaller players NOT larger more established players. Still I stand by what I said. You said:
‘You’re way misjudging the amount of technical idiocy in the human gene pool.’ This is a good point… perhaps you are right.
Secondly, I didn’t say the world would go ‘completely’ socialist. I said I think there will be a shift (increment movement not totally STALINISM) to the left which has happened here and I think will continue. It will more than likely shift back as time progresses as well. At least it does in this country.
Thirdly, I agree with your statement re: Facebook (I am a user) they have a lot of mature apps in comparison to Myspace. I use it to communicate with my sister who lives a distance away from me. But their TOS still sucks in my opinion!
As for Utopia nutters… that made me laugh! When I read that I thought ‘yes that’s me’.
It’s good to be crazy,
Luke.